posted
25 years ago science fiction writers predicted what it would be like in 2012 as part of a feature in the L. Ron Hubbard Writers of the Future award.
Science Fiction writers are apparently gloomy dismal bunch for the most part. As usual, a world choking with too many people and too much pollution has not come to pass. Some would debate that class warfare does exist but I think it is overstated and definitely doesn't included armed conflict between rich and poor. I can't blame some for predicted machines and robots playing a bigger role - that world is always being pushed back a little but eventually we'll get there.
Robert Zelazny is the most hopeful of the group. There are glimpses of predictions reached. Many predictions are vague and broad enough to easily be hit on some level.
quote:Orson Scott Card: "In 2012 Americans will see the collapse of Imperial America, the Pax Americana, as having ended with our loss of national will and national selflessness in the 1970s. Worldwide economic collapse will have cost America its dominant world role; but it will not result in Russian hegemony; their economy is too dependent on the world economy to maintain an irresistible military force. A new world order will emerge."
While an economic downturn hit the world economy, it did not bump America from its dominant world role since the downturn hit the world, not just America. No new world order, yet. No Imperial American to collapse, since there has never been an Imperial American IMO.
Would others feel we can say Pax Americana ended but not due to American loss of will but due to Islamic terrorism? Seems to be the thorn in our side but can we blame ourselves for that? Maybe we can be blamed for some of the motivations of Islamic terrorism and thus the end of the peace?
Interesting thoughts. I am disappointed for the fact that so many have little confidence in humanity's ability to make a better world. Instead we see a belief that we are baser beings that has little regard for our world and ourselves.
Silverberg got it mostly right - "I think the 21st century will be a time of terror, surprises, miracles, and glory with the emphasis on surprises and miracles." But that is a rather safe prediction that could have been made at most points in the past regarding the future.
posted
Cool article. Lots of good guesses mixed with stuff that didn't happen. I want my jetpack!
I win bets against people who predict stuff like this. To date, I've won dinner, and I've won someone putting on a pink tutu and singing "I'm a little teapot".
Anyone wanna predict what things will look like 25 years from now? My calendar program has a long memory...
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posted
Of those that had a population prediction, their minimum was only off by a billion.
If by Imperial America the meaning is that the economy of the U.S. is the dominant force in the world (as opposed to the typical military ruling meaning of imperialist). Then, the prediction is mostly true. The U.S. is no longer THE dominant economy.
The prediction about amazing medical advances is mostly true, if not in the way it was anticipated.
The optimistic prediction that social class will flatten and that everyone will live in happy happy joy joy land didn't happen. From some points of view the opposite happened. But, he was probably predicting what he would like to have happen as opposed to what will happen.
Asimov's prediction was funny, "... traced back to President Ronald Reagan who smiled and waved too much."
The prediction about debt made me smile, I'm betting he didn't think the situation could get this much worse.
And the war between rich and poor, maybe the prediction was a bit early, what with all the talk of the 1% and the occupy movement. The class distinction is heating up.
Pournelle's prediction of a computer AI was of all the even slightly reasonable ones, just way off the mark.
Gene Wolf's prediction of fully animated indistinguishably realistic people was ahead, I would give it another 10 years.
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